Sean's Oscar Winner Predictions

Having 10 nominations with preferential voting (best to last) makes predicting the best picture a little bit harder. Hurt Locker is definitely a front runner. It has Critics Choice, DGA, PGA, and BAFTA. Its director is all but won the Oscar for Best Director. But with the preferential voting, if you as an Academy Member wanted to see another film win, you could put Hurt Locker last with the thinking it is going to get a lot of number 1 votes. It is Hurt Locker vs Avatar. They will divide the honors as they do many years. And this is how I see the major awards stacking up:

Best Picture: Hurt Locker
Best Director: Kathyrn Bigelow
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay: Inglorious Basterds (Hurt Locker maybe)
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique (would love to see Anna Kendrick take this award)
Animated Feature: Up!

I look for Avatar to win in the technical categories:
Best Cinematography
Best Sound
Best Sound Editing
Best Visual Effects
Best Art Direction

The other awards I see as follows:

Best Editing; Hurt Locker (matches Best picture usually)
Best Song: Weary Kind from Crazy Heart
Best Score: Up! (maybe Avatar?)
Best Make Up: Star Trek
Best Costume: Nine (I am crazy I know but the combination of Atwood/Marshall wins. Everybody and their dog is predicting Young Victoria)

Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon
Best Documentary: The Cove (never had a documentary affect me like this film did emotionally. It is entertaining, a technical marvel and emotional)

The shorts category is always anybody's guess and which film has most buzz.

Front Runners:
Documentary Short: Last Truck or China's Unnatural Disaster?
Live Action Short: The Door?
Animated Short: Wallace and Gomit A Matter of Loaf and Death (Nick Park has 2 W&G Oscars) or French Roast? Is Logorama just too much? ( I have seen all them accept Wallace and Gromit)

And finally just fun if I were going to rate the movies for Best picture from best to last here is my list:
Up In the Air (My favorite film of 2009!)
Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Up!
Avatar
Precious
Serious Man
District 9
An Education (This is my pick as most overrated film of 2009. Did not get it.)
The Blind Side (Bullock is great in the film but this is a Lifetime Channel movie of the week! Come On!)

I may change these a little before the big night. Stay tuned....

Sean Marshall

SEAN'S OSCAR NOMINATIONS PREDICTIONS: HOW DID I DO?

BEST PICTURE I missed 2 here. The Academy Decided not to go for Invictus and decided to have only 2 Sci Fi films in the mix with Avatar and District 9. And they went with the money maker and hugely popular Blindside. Renee mentioned that she thought it could get an Oscar nominations before the Nominations were announced. I was unconvinced. And the Academy could not past up the Cohen Bros A Serious Man.

1. Avatar
2. Up in the Air
3. The Hurt Locker
4. Inglorious Basterds
5. Precious
6. An Education

7. Up

8. District 9

9. A Serious Man?

10. The Blind Side !

BEST DIRECTOR
I was 5 for 5 in this category. No surprises. A match up with the DGAs.
1. Kathryn Bigelow
2. James Cameron
3. Lee Daniels
4. Jason Reitman
5. Quentin Tarantino

Possible surprises
Clint Eastwood?
Joel and Ethan Cohen?

Clint Eastwood is always an Oscar threat for Best Director. I think he is the biggest threat to these 5, probably most likely Lee Daniels

BEST ACTOR
This category seems to be pretty cut and dry. This category was cut and dry. 5/5 and no surprises.

1. Jeff Bridges
2. George Clooney
3. Morgan Freeman
4. Colin Frith
5. Jeremy Renner

Possible Spoilers
Micheal Stuhlberg?

The Academy's love for the Cohen Brothers could carry over and get Stuhlberg a nomination.

BEST ACTRESS
This is not the strongest year for this category. 5/5 and No surprises.

1. Sandra Bullock
2. Helen Mirren
3. Carrie Mulligan
4. Gabie Sidibe
5. Meyl Streep

Possible Spoilers:
Emily Blunt?
Marion Collitard (Nine)?
Zoe Saldana (Avatar)?

I did not think that The Last Station was a great film and thought it was a vehicle for Helen Mirren to chew scenery and get Oscar Buzz. She could be replaced with Emily Blunt. Collitard suffers from the lackluster reviews of the film. I am hearing crazy buzz about Zoe Saldana for Avatar. I don't think it could happen in a million years but for the love a long shot and HUGE surprise I have included her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 5/5 and No huge surprises.

1. Matt Damon
2. Woody Harrelson
3. Christopher Plummer
4. Stanley Tucci (Lovely Bones)
5. Christoph Waltz

Possible Spoilers:
Alfred Molina?
Stanley Tucci (Julie&Julia)?
Christian McKay?
Alec Baldwin (It's Complicated)

Molina is the biggest threat to take a spot. I doubt Tucci will take a spot for Julie&Julia instead of Lovely Bones but the bad reviews for the film could maybe turn Academy members to vote him in for Julie and Julia. Christian McKay is still getting buzz. I am going out on a limb and saying Alec Baldwin could maybe get a nomination for It's Complicated. He is at the top of his game, gave a good performance, and he is a recognizable name.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 4/5 here. But the Academy did decide to give a nomination to Gyllenhaal. I should have put her down in my 5 and go with my gut.

1. Penelope Cruz
2. Vera Farmiga
3. Anna Kendrick
4. Mo' Nique
Juliann Moore

Possible Spoilers:
Samatha Morton?
Diane Kruger?
5. Maggie Gyllenhaal
Sigorney Weaver?

Mo' Nique, Kendrick, and Farmira are locks. The other slots are not as cut and dry. Cruz could suffer from the bad reviews of Nine. I think she did her better work as a lead in Broken Embraces. Samatha Morton has gotten a lot of buzz recently. Diane Kruger only is mentioned here because of her SAG nom. Maggie Gyllenhaal could get in if Crazy Heart has some other nominations. Could Avatar love lead to a nomination for Sigorney Weaver? She probably has the best shot of any actor to get a nomination. This is if the Academy goes nuts for Avatar.

ORINGAL SCREENPLAY 4/5 here. No nomination for (500) Days of Summer. They went for The Messager which was not even on my radar.

(500) Days of Summer
1. Hurt Locker
2. Inglorious Basterds
3. A Serious Man
4. Up
5. The Messager

Possible Spoilers:
Avatar?
Broken Embraces?
It's Complicated?
The Hangover?

Avatar has a strong shot at getting a nom. I would love to see Almadovar's Broken Embraces get in here. Hangover is a possibility with it's Golden Globe win and WGA nomination.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 3/5 here. This was my weakest category. It was foolish of me I guess to think Star Trek may make it in here. I still bet there was strong support for the Crazy Heart screenplay but it was In the Loop that made the cut. I should not have counted out District 9.

Crazy Heart
1. An Education
2. Precious
Star Trek
4. Up in the Air
5. In the Loop

Possible Spoilers:
5. District 9
Julie&Julia?
Fantastic Mr. Fox?
Single Man?

Many people are predicting District 9 but I think Star Trek is the Sci Fi that could sneak in with a nomination. I have this feeling that Crazy Heart will sneak in with a nomination. It has a WGA nomination. It's star Jeff Bridges will be nominated. It also has some great original songs.

If Avatar follows Titanic's major award Oscar Noms it would score Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actress nominations. The acting noms are probably out. Maybe it can get what Titanic did not...A nom for Screenplay.

I look to Nine to get mostly Technical nominations. Costume, Art Direction, Cinematography, and Best Song. No Oscar nomination for Nine's Cinematography. I am scratching my head over the nomination of Harry Potter and the half Blood Prince in that category.

SO TO RECAP: I was 34/40...missing 6 which is a 90% average.

Hurt Locker and Avatar are tied with 9 nominations which makes them the front runner. Most Oscar nominations usually equal Best Picture win.
Hurt Locker pulls ahead because of its wins at the PGA and DGA awards. But Avatar becoming the highest grossing picture here in the US and Worldwide it cannot be counted out as the biggest threat.

Mo' Nique, Christoph Waltz, and Jeff Bridges are just about sure bets to get Oscar Gold and were before the nominations were even announced. The Bullock vs. Streep show sdown is all but over now because of The Blind Side's Best Picture nomination. It is also the fact that Bullock is a bankable star that gives a decent performance in an okay film. It echos the Oscar win of Julia Roberts.

Sean Marshall

10 Best Picture Noms?!

The Academy expanded the Best Picture Nominations from 5 to 10. My reaction is kind of a mixed one.

10 Best Picture Nominees is not a new concept the Academy thought of over night. It was the standard to have more then 5 nominations up until the mid 1940’s. Sid Ganis says they examined that and decided to change the rule to make it 10. But the controversial part of this decision making process was the fact that there were people on the Oscar board who would have directly benefited from this rule change would have been in place a few years ago. I am talking of course of Bill Condon. His Dreamgirls was nominated for 9 Oscars but without a Best Picture nomination. It certainly would have been in there as a nomination if there had been 10 Best Picture Nominations that year. 10 nominations certainly would have meant that Dark Knight would have gotten to the Oscar nominated Best Picture Nominees last year.

This also puts the Academy more in line with many of the Critics awards around the country. Most of them work from a Top 10 list and pick their favorite out of those 10. Critic favorites leading up to the nominations will have a better shot at getting nominations with 10. Take last year where as I just stated Dark Knight would have surely been nominated but also Doubt, WALL-E, and Changling could have had a nomination. I think that one of the biggest Awards shows to watch will be the Broadcast Film Critics Awards. Since 2000 they have always had the 5 Oscar nominations in their mix of 10 as well as 5 other critic favorites. I bet their list will match or come close to the Oscar nominations.

So how is this going to affect the winner of Best Picture? I don’t think it will throw at off at all. Even with a list of 10 there is always 1 front runner. The 1 film that wins most all of the predecessor awards is always heavily favored to win the Best Picture Oscar and usually does win it. There are some exceptions like Crash beating Brokeback Mountain in 2005 but Crash was on most critics top 10 lists. And the question is raised that since there are only 5 Best Director slots, does this put more merit on the 5 Best Picture nominees that have Director nods too? Oscar overwhelming likes to match Best Picture and Director.

It is going to make it tougher to predict the actual nominees. I do not think they will put the big summer blockbuster type films in the mix. But there will be more films that are critically acclaimed and seen by a wide audience such as the Dark Knight. It is going to make it hard to remember 10 nominees for sure.

I hope this will be a good year for film and that the nominations will reflect it. We can only hope for 1939 which had film classics like Gone with the Wind, Wizard of Oz, Mr. Smith goes to Washinton in the 10 nominations.

Sean Marshall

Curious Case of Benjamin Button equals Forrest Gump Redux

I have talked to many people about how The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has many story lines that are identical to Forrest Gump. This is not a new concept on the web but I thought I would go over them here.

This contains spoilers:

Both films span the life of a less then ordinary man and center on the people that he meets as he ages.

Benjamin learns to walk without his crutches…Forrest bursts out of his braces and learns to walk

Benjamin has Daisy his childhood and one true love…Forrest has Jenny his childhood friend and one true love.

Benjamin has an endearing mother figure…Forrest has an endearing mother

Benjamin works on a fishing boat…Forrest works on a shrimp boat

Benjamin is friends with this sea boat Captain Mike…Forrest is friends with Lt. Dan who goes out with Forrest on the Shrimp boat

There is a hurricane coming while Daisy tells the story of Benjamin to her daughter…There is a hurricane that Forrest and Lt Dan get caught up in while on the shrimp boat.

Benjamin sees action in World War II...Forrest does time in Vietnam

Benjamin has a child with Daisy…Forrest has a child with Jenny

There are some I probably don’t have here. If you think of some more please feel free to leave a comment--Sean Marshall Metcalf

Quick DVD reviews by Sean Marshall Mecalf

Doubt ****

Doubt is one of the best films of 2008. It is a drama that plays out like a suspense film. Meryl Streep is perfect as the strict Sister Aloysius, the Headmistress of a catholic school, who believes without a shadow of a doubt that that Father Brendan has had an inappropriate relationship with a boy at the school. The film is almost like a courtroom drama without the courtroom, where the viewer gets to play the jury. As the accusations are made against Father Brendan, it is very much a case of circumstantial evidence. Amy Adams is great as Sister James, a kindhearted teacher at the school. It is Adams that has the most complex character arc in the film. As the accusations are made her character starts waning away from her sweet kind hearted nature. She is caught between her trust and like of Father Brendan and her devotion to the Headmistress Sister Aloysius. I cannot talk about Doubt without talking about the film’s powerhouse performance by Violia Davis who plays the mother of the boy that Father Brendan is accused of inappropriate relations. In her 10 minutes on screen she even manages to out shine Meryl Streep. On DVD April 4, 2009

The Reader ***

In The Reader, Kate Winslet gives her Oscar Winning performance as Hanna Schmitz, a 36 year old German Bus Conductor in post World War II Britain. Her paths cross with 15 year old Peter Berg (David Koss) and the two begin a love affair. As they continue their affair Peter starts to read classic literature to her after they have sex. As Peter gets older and goes away to collage the two drift apart. But they come together again when law student Peter gets to sit in on a Nazi War Trial in which Hanna is one of the defendants. The film jumps time a third time with Ralph Fiennes playing the older Peter. His performance is less then stellar. It is Koss as Peter that shines in the film. Winslet is good in the film but she seems to play mood instead playing a real character. As I have said before I much prefer her in Revolutionary Road. The film was also nominated for Best Picture but I think it pales in comparison to Doubt which did not receive a Best Picture Nomination. On DVD April 14, 2009

Out on DVD--Quick reviews by Sean Marshall Metcalf

Slumdog Millionaire ****

Slumdog Millionaire is such an enjoyable film. It has been called a feel good film but I think that is selling this or any film short. The story is a simple one. Jamal is a contestant on India’s version of Who Wants to be a Millionaire. As he answers the questions, the events of his life unfold and show why he knew the answer. It seemlessly weaves in and out of Jamal's adult life and his life as a kid. It is a well crafted film down to even the music which is a big part of what makes the movie work. It is the winner of 8 Academy Awards including Best Picture and Best Director. DVD March 31, 2009



Bolt ***

Bolt surprised me. I wanted to not like this John Travolta/Miley Cyrus animated movie but it got me hooked with a fun and smart story. It plays out like any fish out of water, journey to find home, animated animal buddy flick. But it has a funny script, developed characters, great animation, and most of all some heart. As dog movies go, I much preferred it over Marley and Me. DVD March 24, 2009

Marley and Me **1/2

As dog films go Marley and Me is just okay. I would have liked to have seen less relationship between Owen Wilson and Jennifer Aniston and more of the dog Marley. Both actors have a great chemistry with the various dogs who play Marley through out his life, but don't have much chemistry with each other as husband and wife. But really, the reason to watch the film is not the actors themselves but the dog. And what keeps the film entertaining is seeing what Marley is going to do next. When the film was all over I did have to go and hug my Boarder Collie mix Ziggy. DVD March 31, 2009

Race to Witch Mountain

**1/2 out of ****
By: William Moon
The latest loosely-based remake or as Disney likes to call it "re imagining" of 1975's "Escape to Witch Mountain" isn't exactly bad. It just lacks the heart, soul and character development that made the original so magical and engaging.

That's not to say you shouldn't waste your time by passing the film up altogether. It has a lot going for it, and by that I mean it delivers great performances from its lead actors, Duane Johnson, AnnaSophia Robb and newcomer Alexander Ludwig, along with enough action to keep you fully entertained for an hour and a half.

I believe a lot of the critics gave this film the correct rating, but for the wrong reason. Many took the film too seriously, questioning the logic situation of an actual band of SWAT team chasing a couple of teen aliens with a robotic-looking Predator-like creature following them as well, and really, I think many of them criticized the film in the wrong areas.

Yes, it's a very implausible plot, but lets look at the given genre and targeted audience, here. This is targeted to preteens and promises to be a fun, action thrill-ride and in my opinion, is much more successful than the recent Twilight, in that regard. However, the effects are just about as bad, if not worse, and the believability of these characters in these situations were erased for me every time it was so obvious they stood in front of a green screen.

I know I'm supposed to suspend my disbelief and pass all of that by, but the film simply only seems to go through the motions of the action and not focusing on the heart. And while the actors are convincingly good and the music befitting for the so-called race, the effects, themselves are not so much. There is a relationship formed between Johnson's character Jack Bruno and Alex (played by Carla Gugino), which seems about as unnecessary as Robb's character breaking down and crying in her farewell in the end. If you're going to try and add a romance and break the rules of the aliens feeling emotion (because in the beginning of the film they were about as robotic as Stepford children), please fully flesh out your emotions. These are just a couple of minor quibbles I had with the film, and they're hardly noticeable, seeing as how 90 percent of the film involves the children and Jackson running for their lives.

Watching this film, I can't help but be reminded of last years City of Ember, which I felt had much more depth, better effects and a script than this film did. The original material of Escape to Witch Mountain had a lot going for it. So why would there be a point in remaking the film and simply have the characters running for 90 minutes and still calling it the same thing? I'm not a stickler for keeping things strictly to the original sources, but I think some of the development could have been left in this time. I'm not saying I didn't have a good time watching the three characters running through the entire movie. In fact, I had a blast. The dialogue ranges from everywhere of being flat-out goofball to pure comedic timing and wit, thanks mostly to depending on the deliverance's of the actors.

This is actually quite an enjoyable, fun, action-packed good film for children. I can't necessarily say it's a good film for adults, though. I enjoyed it, but that doesn't mean I thought it was good. I think the film didn't completely go out with its campy side, or have the best of effects and script to make it fully a serious film either, but if you do choose to see it, please, just take it for what it is: a fun popcorn, caffeinated adrenaline ride. Nothing more. Nothing less. If you want something more substantial, stick to the original.