Best Picture Race

Now that the Oscar Nominations have been announced, I will start to focus on some of the nominations. I want to start with Best Picture. And the Nominees are:

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

The Fighter, The King's Speech, The Social Network and True Grit probably have the biggest support because of the multiple nominations in especially the major categories. The weakest of the four is probably True Grit. The Academy does love the Cohens but I just don't think they will put True Grit at the top of their list. The Fighter has its best chance to win in the supporting acting categories. That leaves The King's Speech and The Social Network.

The Social Network is the critic's darling and even looked unstoppable even through the Critic's Choice Awards and the Golden Globes. Not that the Globes ever have been a great indicator of what will win the Oscar for Best Picture. But the Critic's Choice Awards have picked the Best Picture ten out of their sixteen year history. Two of the years they did not pick the winner were 1999 when Saving Private Ryan lost to Shakespeare in Love and in 2006 when Brokeback Mountain lost to Crash.

Up until the PGA Award, everyone thought The Social Network to be unstoppable. It was then that The King's Speech took that honor. And then The King's Speech took the DGA and the SAG Ensemble Award. It is the PGA, DGA, and SAG that seems to be the combo that cements Oscar victory for a film. Five out of the six times a film has won PGA, DGA, and SAG it has gone on to win the Best Picture Oscar. The only year was 1995. That was the first year of the SAG Awards and the winner of the DGA, Ron Howard, was not nominated for a Best Director Oscar that year.

The King's Speech also has the most Oscar Nominations. The film with the most nominations has won 56 out of 81 times. This is not as good of an indicator as the PGA, DGA, SAG combo but it carries some weight.

So with all this in mind the odds on favorite of winning the Oscar for Best Picture is...THE KING'S SPEECH.

2010 OSCAR NOMINATIONS predictions

Best Picture
1 127 Hours
2 Black Swan
3 The Fighter
4 Inception
5 The Kids Are All Right
6 The King's Speech
7 The Social Network
8 The Town
9 Toy Story 3
10 True Grit
Winter's Bone?

Best Director
1 Darren Aronofsky
2 David Fincher
3 Tom Hooper
4 Christopher Nolan
5 David O Russell
Joel and Ethan Cohen?

Best Actor
1 Jeff Bridges
2 Robert Duvall
3 Jesse Esinberg
4 Colin Firth
5 James Franco
Ryan Gosling?
Mark Wahlberg? Leonardo Dicaprio?

Best Actress
1 Annette Benning
2 Nicole Kidman
3 Jennifer Lawernce
4 Natalie Portman
5 Michelle Williams
Julianne Moore?

Best Supporting Actor
1 Christian Bale
2 Andrew Garfield
3 Jeremy Renner
4 Mark Ruffalo
5 Geoffrey Rush
John Hawkes?
Pete Postlewaite (Town)? Matt Damon (True Grit)?

Best Supporting Actress
1 Adam Adams
2 Helena Bonham-Carter
3 Mila Kunis
4 Melissa Leo
5 Hailee Stienfield
Jackie Weaver?
Barbara Hershey?

Adapted Screenplay
1 127 Hours
2 The Social Network
3 Toy Story 3
4 True Grit
5 Winter's Bone
Town?
I Love You Phillip Morris?

Best Original Screenplay
1 Black Swan
2 The Fighter
3 Inception
4 The Kids Are All Right
5 The King's Speech
Another Year?

Sean's Oscar Winner Predictions

Having 10 nominations with preferential voting (best to last) makes predicting the best picture a little bit harder. Hurt Locker is definitely a front runner. It has Critics Choice, DGA, PGA, and BAFTA. Its director is all but won the Oscar for Best Director. But with the preferential voting, if you as an Academy Member wanted to see another film win, you could put Hurt Locker last with the thinking it is going to get a lot of number 1 votes. It is Hurt Locker vs Avatar. They will divide the honors as they do many years. And this is how I see the major awards stacking up:

Best Picture: Hurt Locker
Best Director: Kathyrn Bigelow
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
Best Original Screenplay: Inglorious Basterds (Hurt Locker maybe)
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique (would love to see Anna Kendrick take this award)
Animated Feature: Up!

I look for Avatar to win in the technical categories:
Best Cinematography
Best Sound
Best Sound Editing
Best Visual Effects
Best Art Direction

The other awards I see as follows:

Best Editing; Hurt Locker (matches Best picture usually)
Best Song: Weary Kind from Crazy Heart
Best Score: Up! (maybe Avatar?)
Best Make Up: Star Trek
Best Costume: Nine (I am crazy I know but the combination of Atwood/Marshall wins. Everybody and their dog is predicting Young Victoria)

Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon
Best Documentary: The Cove (never had a documentary affect me like this film did emotionally. It is entertaining, a technical marvel and emotional)

The shorts category is always anybody's guess and which film has most buzz.

Front Runners:
Documentary Short: Last Truck or China's Unnatural Disaster?
Live Action Short: The Door?
Animated Short: Wallace and Gomit A Matter of Loaf and Death (Nick Park has 2 W&G Oscars) or French Roast? Is Logorama just too much? ( I have seen all them accept Wallace and Gromit)

And finally just fun if I were going to rate the movies for Best picture from best to last here is my list:
Up In the Air (My favorite film of 2009!)
Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Up!
Avatar
Precious
Serious Man
District 9
An Education (This is my pick as most overrated film of 2009. Did not get it.)
The Blind Side (Bullock is great in the film but this is a Lifetime Channel movie of the week! Come On!)

I may change these a little before the big night. Stay tuned....

Sean Marshall

SEAN'S OSCAR NOMINATIONS PREDICTIONS: HOW DID I DO?

BEST PICTURE I missed 2 here. The Academy Decided not to go for Invictus and decided to have only 2 Sci Fi films in the mix with Avatar and District 9. And they went with the money maker and hugely popular Blindside. Renee mentioned that she thought it could get an Oscar nominations before the Nominations were announced. I was unconvinced. And the Academy could not past up the Cohen Bros A Serious Man.

1. Avatar
2. Up in the Air
3. The Hurt Locker
4. Inglorious Basterds
5. Precious
6. An Education

7. Up

8. District 9

9. A Serious Man?

10. The Blind Side !

BEST DIRECTOR
I was 5 for 5 in this category. No surprises. A match up with the DGAs.
1. Kathryn Bigelow
2. James Cameron
3. Lee Daniels
4. Jason Reitman
5. Quentin Tarantino

Possible surprises
Clint Eastwood?
Joel and Ethan Cohen?

Clint Eastwood is always an Oscar threat for Best Director. I think he is the biggest threat to these 5, probably most likely Lee Daniels

BEST ACTOR
This category seems to be pretty cut and dry. This category was cut and dry. 5/5 and no surprises.

1. Jeff Bridges
2. George Clooney
3. Morgan Freeman
4. Colin Frith
5. Jeremy Renner

Possible Spoilers
Micheal Stuhlberg?

The Academy's love for the Cohen Brothers could carry over and get Stuhlberg a nomination.

BEST ACTRESS
This is not the strongest year for this category. 5/5 and No surprises.

1. Sandra Bullock
2. Helen Mirren
3. Carrie Mulligan
4. Gabie Sidibe
5. Meyl Streep

Possible Spoilers:
Emily Blunt?
Marion Collitard (Nine)?
Zoe Saldana (Avatar)?

I did not think that The Last Station was a great film and thought it was a vehicle for Helen Mirren to chew scenery and get Oscar Buzz. She could be replaced with Emily Blunt. Collitard suffers from the lackluster reviews of the film. I am hearing crazy buzz about Zoe Saldana for Avatar. I don't think it could happen in a million years but for the love a long shot and HUGE surprise I have included her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 5/5 and No huge surprises.

1. Matt Damon
2. Woody Harrelson
3. Christopher Plummer
4. Stanley Tucci (Lovely Bones)
5. Christoph Waltz

Possible Spoilers:
Alfred Molina?
Stanley Tucci (Julie&Julia)?
Christian McKay?
Alec Baldwin (It's Complicated)

Molina is the biggest threat to take a spot. I doubt Tucci will take a spot for Julie&Julia instead of Lovely Bones but the bad reviews for the film could maybe turn Academy members to vote him in for Julie and Julia. Christian McKay is still getting buzz. I am going out on a limb and saying Alec Baldwin could maybe get a nomination for It's Complicated. He is at the top of his game, gave a good performance, and he is a recognizable name.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 4/5 here. But the Academy did decide to give a nomination to Gyllenhaal. I should have put her down in my 5 and go with my gut.

1. Penelope Cruz
2. Vera Farmiga
3. Anna Kendrick
4. Mo' Nique
Juliann Moore

Possible Spoilers:
Samatha Morton?
Diane Kruger?
5. Maggie Gyllenhaal
Sigorney Weaver?

Mo' Nique, Kendrick, and Farmira are locks. The other slots are not as cut and dry. Cruz could suffer from the bad reviews of Nine. I think she did her better work as a lead in Broken Embraces. Samatha Morton has gotten a lot of buzz recently. Diane Kruger only is mentioned here because of her SAG nom. Maggie Gyllenhaal could get in if Crazy Heart has some other nominations. Could Avatar love lead to a nomination for Sigorney Weaver? She probably has the best shot of any actor to get a nomination. This is if the Academy goes nuts for Avatar.

ORINGAL SCREENPLAY 4/5 here. No nomination for (500) Days of Summer. They went for The Messager which was not even on my radar.

(500) Days of Summer
1. Hurt Locker
2. Inglorious Basterds
3. A Serious Man
4. Up
5. The Messager

Possible Spoilers:
Avatar?
Broken Embraces?
It's Complicated?
The Hangover?

Avatar has a strong shot at getting a nom. I would love to see Almadovar's Broken Embraces get in here. Hangover is a possibility with it's Golden Globe win and WGA nomination.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 3/5 here. This was my weakest category. It was foolish of me I guess to think Star Trek may make it in here. I still bet there was strong support for the Crazy Heart screenplay but it was In the Loop that made the cut. I should not have counted out District 9.

Crazy Heart
1. An Education
2. Precious
Star Trek
4. Up in the Air
5. In the Loop

Possible Spoilers:
5. District 9
Julie&Julia?
Fantastic Mr. Fox?
Single Man?

Many people are predicting District 9 but I think Star Trek is the Sci Fi that could sneak in with a nomination. I have this feeling that Crazy Heart will sneak in with a nomination. It has a WGA nomination. It's star Jeff Bridges will be nominated. It also has some great original songs.

If Avatar follows Titanic's major award Oscar Noms it would score Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actress nominations. The acting noms are probably out. Maybe it can get what Titanic did not...A nom for Screenplay.

I look to Nine to get mostly Technical nominations. Costume, Art Direction, Cinematography, and Best Song. No Oscar nomination for Nine's Cinematography. I am scratching my head over the nomination of Harry Potter and the half Blood Prince in that category.

SO TO RECAP: I was 34/40...missing 6 which is a 90% average.

Hurt Locker and Avatar are tied with 9 nominations which makes them the front runner. Most Oscar nominations usually equal Best Picture win.
Hurt Locker pulls ahead because of its wins at the PGA and DGA awards. But Avatar becoming the highest grossing picture here in the US and Worldwide it cannot be counted out as the biggest threat.

Mo' Nique, Christoph Waltz, and Jeff Bridges are just about sure bets to get Oscar Gold and were before the nominations were even announced. The Bullock vs. Streep show sdown is all but over now because of The Blind Side's Best Picture nomination. It is also the fact that Bullock is a bankable star that gives a decent performance in an okay film. It echos the Oscar win of Julia Roberts.

Sean Marshall

10 Best Picture Noms?!

The Academy expanded the Best Picture Nominations from 5 to 10. My reaction is kind of a mixed one.

10 Best Picture Nominees is not a new concept the Academy thought of over night. It was the standard to have more then 5 nominations up until the mid 1940’s. Sid Ganis says they examined that and decided to change the rule to make it 10. But the controversial part of this decision making process was the fact that there were people on the Oscar board who would have directly benefited from this rule change would have been in place a few years ago. I am talking of course of Bill Condon. His Dreamgirls was nominated for 9 Oscars but without a Best Picture nomination. It certainly would have been in there as a nomination if there had been 10 Best Picture Nominations that year. 10 nominations certainly would have meant that Dark Knight would have gotten to the Oscar nominated Best Picture Nominees last year.

This also puts the Academy more in line with many of the Critics awards around the country. Most of them work from a Top 10 list and pick their favorite out of those 10. Critic favorites leading up to the nominations will have a better shot at getting nominations with 10. Take last year where as I just stated Dark Knight would have surely been nominated but also Doubt, WALL-E, and Changling could have had a nomination. I think that one of the biggest Awards shows to watch will be the Broadcast Film Critics Awards. Since 2000 they have always had the 5 Oscar nominations in their mix of 10 as well as 5 other critic favorites. I bet their list will match or come close to the Oscar nominations.

So how is this going to affect the winner of Best Picture? I don’t think it will throw at off at all. Even with a list of 10 there is always 1 front runner. The 1 film that wins most all of the predecessor awards is always heavily favored to win the Best Picture Oscar and usually does win it. There are some exceptions like Crash beating Brokeback Mountain in 2005 but Crash was on most critics top 10 lists. And the question is raised that since there are only 5 Best Director slots, does this put more merit on the 5 Best Picture nominees that have Director nods too? Oscar overwhelming likes to match Best Picture and Director.

It is going to make it tougher to predict the actual nominees. I do not think they will put the big summer blockbuster type films in the mix. But there will be more films that are critically acclaimed and seen by a wide audience such as the Dark Knight. It is going to make it hard to remember 10 nominees for sure.

I hope this will be a good year for film and that the nominations will reflect it. We can only hope for 1939 which had film classics like Gone with the Wind, Wizard of Oz, Mr. Smith goes to Washinton in the 10 nominations.

Sean Marshall

Curious Case of Benjamin Button equals Forrest Gump Redux

I have talked to many people about how The Curious Case of Benjamin Button has many story lines that are identical to Forrest Gump. This is not a new concept on the web but I thought I would go over them here.

This contains spoilers:

Both films span the life of a less then ordinary man and center on the people that he meets as he ages.

Benjamin learns to walk without his crutches…Forrest bursts out of his braces and learns to walk

Benjamin has Daisy his childhood and one true love…Forrest has Jenny his childhood friend and one true love.

Benjamin has an endearing mother figure…Forrest has an endearing mother

Benjamin works on a fishing boat…Forrest works on a shrimp boat

Benjamin is friends with this sea boat Captain Mike…Forrest is friends with Lt. Dan who goes out with Forrest on the Shrimp boat

There is a hurricane coming while Daisy tells the story of Benjamin to her daughter…There is a hurricane that Forrest and Lt Dan get caught up in while on the shrimp boat.

Benjamin sees action in World War II...Forrest does time in Vietnam

Benjamin has a child with Daisy…Forrest has a child with Jenny

There are some I probably don’t have here. If you think of some more please feel free to leave a comment--Sean Marshall Metcalf

Quick DVD reviews by Sean Marshall Mecalf

Doubt ****

Doubt is one of the best films of 2008. It is a drama that plays out like a suspense film. Meryl Streep is perfect as the strict Sister Aloysius, the Headmistress of a catholic school, who believes without a shadow of a doubt that that Father Brendan has had an inappropriate relationship with a boy at the school. The film is almost like a courtroom drama without the courtroom, where the viewer gets to play the jury. As the accusations are made against Father Brendan, it is very much a case of circumstantial evidence. Amy Adams is great as Sister James, a kindhearted teacher at the school. It is Adams that has the most complex character arc in the film. As the accusations are made her character starts waning away from her sweet kind hearted nature. She is caught between her trust and like of Father Brendan and her devotion to the Headmistress Sister Aloysius. I cannot talk about Doubt without talking about the film’s powerhouse performance by Violia Davis who plays the mother of the boy that Father Brendan is accused of inappropriate relations. In her 10 minutes on screen she even manages to out shine Meryl Streep. On DVD April 4, 2009

The Reader ***

In The Reader, Kate Winslet gives her Oscar Winning performance as Hanna Schmitz, a 36 year old German Bus Conductor in post World War II Britain. Her paths cross with 15 year old Peter Berg (David Koss) and the two begin a love affair. As they continue their affair Peter starts to read classic literature to her after they have sex. As Peter gets older and goes away to collage the two drift apart. But they come together again when law student Peter gets to sit in on a Nazi War Trial in which Hanna is one of the defendants. The film jumps time a third time with Ralph Fiennes playing the older Peter. His performance is less then stellar. It is Koss as Peter that shines in the film. Winslet is good in the film but she seems to play mood instead playing a real character. As I have said before I much prefer her in Revolutionary Road. The film was also nominated for Best Picture but I think it pales in comparison to Doubt which did not receive a Best Picture Nomination. On DVD April 14, 2009