SEAN'S OSCAR NOMINATIONS PREDICTIONS: HOW DID I DO?

BEST PICTURE I missed 2 here. The Academy Decided not to go for Invictus and decided to have only 2 Sci Fi films in the mix with Avatar and District 9. And they went with the money maker and hugely popular Blindside. Renee mentioned that she thought it could get an Oscar nominations before the Nominations were announced. I was unconvinced. And the Academy could not past up the Cohen Bros A Serious Man.

1. Avatar
2. Up in the Air
3. The Hurt Locker
4. Inglorious Basterds
5. Precious
6. An Education

7. Up

8. District 9

9. A Serious Man?

10. The Blind Side !

BEST DIRECTOR
I was 5 for 5 in this category. No surprises. A match up with the DGAs.
1. Kathryn Bigelow
2. James Cameron
3. Lee Daniels
4. Jason Reitman
5. Quentin Tarantino

Possible surprises
Clint Eastwood?
Joel and Ethan Cohen?

Clint Eastwood is always an Oscar threat for Best Director. I think he is the biggest threat to these 5, probably most likely Lee Daniels

BEST ACTOR
This category seems to be pretty cut and dry. This category was cut and dry. 5/5 and no surprises.

1. Jeff Bridges
2. George Clooney
3. Morgan Freeman
4. Colin Frith
5. Jeremy Renner

Possible Spoilers
Micheal Stuhlberg?

The Academy's love for the Cohen Brothers could carry over and get Stuhlberg a nomination.

BEST ACTRESS
This is not the strongest year for this category. 5/5 and No surprises.

1. Sandra Bullock
2. Helen Mirren
3. Carrie Mulligan
4. Gabie Sidibe
5. Meyl Streep

Possible Spoilers:
Emily Blunt?
Marion Collitard (Nine)?
Zoe Saldana (Avatar)?

I did not think that The Last Station was a great film and thought it was a vehicle for Helen Mirren to chew scenery and get Oscar Buzz. She could be replaced with Emily Blunt. Collitard suffers from the lackluster reviews of the film. I am hearing crazy buzz about Zoe Saldana for Avatar. I don't think it could happen in a million years but for the love a long shot and HUGE surprise I have included her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 5/5 and No huge surprises.

1. Matt Damon
2. Woody Harrelson
3. Christopher Plummer
4. Stanley Tucci (Lovely Bones)
5. Christoph Waltz

Possible Spoilers:
Alfred Molina?
Stanley Tucci (Julie&Julia)?
Christian McKay?
Alec Baldwin (It's Complicated)

Molina is the biggest threat to take a spot. I doubt Tucci will take a spot for Julie&Julia instead of Lovely Bones but the bad reviews for the film could maybe turn Academy members to vote him in for Julie and Julia. Christian McKay is still getting buzz. I am going out on a limb and saying Alec Baldwin could maybe get a nomination for It's Complicated. He is at the top of his game, gave a good performance, and he is a recognizable name.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 4/5 here. But the Academy did decide to give a nomination to Gyllenhaal. I should have put her down in my 5 and go with my gut.

1. Penelope Cruz
2. Vera Farmiga
3. Anna Kendrick
4. Mo' Nique
Juliann Moore

Possible Spoilers:
Samatha Morton?
Diane Kruger?
5. Maggie Gyllenhaal
Sigorney Weaver?

Mo' Nique, Kendrick, and Farmira are locks. The other slots are not as cut and dry. Cruz could suffer from the bad reviews of Nine. I think she did her better work as a lead in Broken Embraces. Samatha Morton has gotten a lot of buzz recently. Diane Kruger only is mentioned here because of her SAG nom. Maggie Gyllenhaal could get in if Crazy Heart has some other nominations. Could Avatar love lead to a nomination for Sigorney Weaver? She probably has the best shot of any actor to get a nomination. This is if the Academy goes nuts for Avatar.

ORINGAL SCREENPLAY 4/5 here. No nomination for (500) Days of Summer. They went for The Messager which was not even on my radar.

(500) Days of Summer
1. Hurt Locker
2. Inglorious Basterds
3. A Serious Man
4. Up
5. The Messager

Possible Spoilers:
Avatar?
Broken Embraces?
It's Complicated?
The Hangover?

Avatar has a strong shot at getting a nom. I would love to see Almadovar's Broken Embraces get in here. Hangover is a possibility with it's Golden Globe win and WGA nomination.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 3/5 here. This was my weakest category. It was foolish of me I guess to think Star Trek may make it in here. I still bet there was strong support for the Crazy Heart screenplay but it was In the Loop that made the cut. I should not have counted out District 9.

Crazy Heart
1. An Education
2. Precious
Star Trek
4. Up in the Air
5. In the Loop

Possible Spoilers:
5. District 9
Julie&Julia?
Fantastic Mr. Fox?
Single Man?

Many people are predicting District 9 but I think Star Trek is the Sci Fi that could sneak in with a nomination. I have this feeling that Crazy Heart will sneak in with a nomination. It has a WGA nomination. It's star Jeff Bridges will be nominated. It also has some great original songs.

If Avatar follows Titanic's major award Oscar Noms it would score Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actress, and Best Supporting Actress nominations. The acting noms are probably out. Maybe it can get what Titanic did not...A nom for Screenplay.

I look to Nine to get mostly Technical nominations. Costume, Art Direction, Cinematography, and Best Song. No Oscar nomination for Nine's Cinematography. I am scratching my head over the nomination of Harry Potter and the half Blood Prince in that category.

SO TO RECAP: I was 34/40...missing 6 which is a 90% average.

Hurt Locker and Avatar are tied with 9 nominations which makes them the front runner. Most Oscar nominations usually equal Best Picture win.
Hurt Locker pulls ahead because of its wins at the PGA and DGA awards. But Avatar becoming the highest grossing picture here in the US and Worldwide it cannot be counted out as the biggest threat.

Mo' Nique, Christoph Waltz, and Jeff Bridges are just about sure bets to get Oscar Gold and were before the nominations were even announced. The Bullock vs. Streep show sdown is all but over now because of The Blind Side's Best Picture nomination. It is also the fact that Bullock is a bankable star that gives a decent performance in an okay film. It echos the Oscar win of Julia Roberts.

Sean Marshall